UBS has expressed concerns that an increase in aviation taxes could lead to a decline in traffic at Paris airports in the coming years.

The brokerage maintains a Neutral rating on ADP, stating that higher taxes may negatively impact air travel demand.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggests that changes in airfares have an average demand elasticity of 0.5x, while ACI Europe estimates it at 0.2x.

UBS believes the latter figure is more accurate, noting that a 10% increase in ticket prices could result in a 2% decrease in passenger volumes.

UBS also highlights that low-cost routes are particularly sensitive to fare increases.

Furthermore, UBS estimates that a 1% change in traffic has a corresponding 1% impact on the Group's EBITDA, emphasizing the financial implications of fluctuating passenger numbers in the aviation sector.