T-Note yields decline as investors adjust inflation and growth expectations

IG

The decline in long-term US bond yields is being attributed to shifts in real rate and inflation expectations, while the term premium remains stable.

Analysts believe that the revised outlooks on growth and inflation are influenced by the unwinding of the Trump Trade, which includes expectations around tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts.

The 10-year T-Note has shown a bullish trend this year, but traders are cautious due to recent volatility.

There is a potential short-term rebound anticipated, with a target price of $113 and a longer-term goal of reaching around $115, contingent on renewed recession fears.

Key entry points are identified above $110, with a stop-loss at $109, indicating a favorable risk/reward ratio of greater than 2.

Market fluctuations are expected to remain subdued until Donald Trump's inauguration in January, with the January high serving as the first resistance level to monitor.

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