Inflation Trends and Economic Policies Shape December Market Outlook

US December consumer price inflation is predicted to have modest headline gains, with egg prices experiencing notable increases due to a supply shock. This situation highlights the limitations of monetary policy in addressing specific supply issues.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell does not have the ability to influence agricultural markets. In terms of political developments, President-elect Trump intends to establish an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs, duties, and revenue from foreign sources, indicating a shift in trade policy. This move raises concerns about increased regulation and the potential duplication of existing customs services, reflecting the complexities of single-issue politics.

In the UK, December inflation data fell short of expectations, primarily driven by housing costs, which may not accurately reflect economic conditions. Lower-than-anticipated producer prices suggest that the negative sentiment surrounding the UK economy may stem more from political objections than from actual economic performance. Meanwhile, Spain's final December consumer price inflation is expected to remain unchanged, with no significant market impact anticipated, as more European Central Bank officials are scheduled to speak.

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