Indian Rupee Expected to Fall Below 85 per Dollar in Six Months

The Indian rupee is expected to surpass the 85 per U.S. dollar mark in the next six months, currently trading at around 84.72/$, according to a survey of foreign exchange strategists.

This prediction comes as the Reserve Bank of India continues to intervene in order to minimize currency losses, despite recent economic data showing a surprising slowdown in India's growth to an annual rate of 5.4% for the latest quarter. This slowdown has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, with only five out of 67 economists surveyed predicting a rate reduction in the upcoming meeting. Most analysts anticipate two quarter-point cuts in the first half of 2025.

Furthermore, the U.S. dollar has strengthened by nearly 6% since October, influenced by proposed tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump, which are expected to drive inflation in the U.S. economy.

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