The Indian rupee is expected to surpass the 85 per U.S. dollar mark in the next six months, currently trading at around 84.72/$, according to a survey of foreign exchange strategists.
This prediction comes as the Reserve Bank of India continues to intervene in order to minimize currency losses, despite recent economic data showing a surprising slowdown in India's growth to an annual rate of 5.4% for the latest quarter. This slowdown has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, with only five out of 67 economists surveyed predicting a rate reduction in the upcoming meeting. Most analysts anticipate two quarter-point cuts in the first half of 2025.
Furthermore, the U.S. dollar has strengthened by nearly 6% since October, influenced by proposed tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump, which are expected to drive inflation in the U.S. economy.