The analysts at Bernstein believe that the continuation of Russian gas flows through Ukraine will not have a significant impact on European fuel prices this winter.

They estimate that even if a transit deal were to extend beyond the end of the year, it would only add an extra 5 billion cubic meters of gas supply until the heating season ends.

This amount is much lower than the average monthly imports recorded for 2024 so far, indicating that any potential increase in supply would have a minimal effect on the overall market dynamics.

The analysts, including Irene Himona, do not expect a long-term transit agreement beyond this year, which further supports the expectation of limited changes in the European gas landscape.