Greenpanel Industries has been given an 'Accumulate' rating by Prabhudas Lilladher, with a target price of Rs 450. The research report, dated October 29, 2024, states that the firm has revised its FY25 earnings estimates downward by 6.9% due to a disappointing Q2FY25 performance and increasing domestic competition. This has negatively impacted MDF realization.

The report mentions that Greenpanel expects a domestic MDF volume growth of 15-18% year-on-year in the second half of FY25, with the firm projecting a more conservative growth rate of 16%. However, the company is facing challenges, including a 4.4% year-on-year decline in MDF domestic realization in Q2FY25, which is attributed to competitive pricing pressures. Furthermore, MDF exports have been affected by container shortages and rising freight costs.

The outlook suggests that the consolidated EBITDA margin for FY25 will remain low at 13.0%, influenced by rising timber prices and increased competition in the MDF market. Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT are expected to grow at CAGRs of 15.9%, 21.3%, and 23.8%, respectively, from FY24 to FY27, with MDF volume growth projected at 15.2%.