UBS Group AG has reported strong third-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations. The bank attributed this performance to strong lending income and effective cost management.
UBS cautioned about potential headwinds, including the upcoming U.S. elections and a decline in interest income, which could introduce market volatility. The bank's CEO, Sergio Ermotti, noted that investors are pricing in a victory for Donald Trump in the elections, but a win for Kamala Harris could lead to a reevaluation of existing trades. UBS warned of unpredictable consequences as the election approaches.
UBS is currently integrating Credit Suisse and faces scrutiny regarding its future capital levels. The bank could see its capital requirements increase by as much as $25 billion. UBS has phased out a regulatory benefit associated with the Credit Suisse takeover, resulting in a decline in its CET1 capital ratio. Despite this, the bank remains committed to share buybacks. However, plans for capital returns beyond 2025 are contingent on the outcomes of the Swiss regulatory overhaul.
UBS's shares have shown resilience and have gained about 10% year-to-date. The bank's strong performance in equities trading has contributed to its third consecutive quarter of profit.
The Swiss parliament is expected to release its investigation into the Credit Suisse crisis before the end of the year, which will inform new ordinances and legislation governing capital requirements. UBS will need to revise its emergency and resolution plans as it adjusts to its larger size and complexity following the acquisition. This reflects broader trends in the banking industry, where regulatory pressures and market volatility are increasingly intertwined.