UBS has expressed concerns that an increase in aviation taxes could lead to a decline in traffic at Paris airports in the coming years.

The brokerage maintains a Neutral rating on ADP, stating that higher taxes may negatively impact air travel demand.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggests that demand for air travel is elastic, with a 0.5x average elasticity in response to changes in airfares.

However, ACI Europe estimates the elasticity to be 0.2x.

UBS believes the latter figure is more accurate, noting that a 10% increase in ticket prices could result in a 2% decrease in passenger volumes.

UBS also highlights that low-cost routes have a higher elasticity of demand, indicating that travelers are more sensitive to fare increases.

Additionally, UBS estimates that a 1% change in traffic has approximately a 1% impact on the Group's EBITDA, emphasizing the financial implications of fluctuating passenger numbers in the aviation sector.