NASA is currently reassessing its approach to maintaining a continuous human presence in low Earth orbit (LEO) as it prepares for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) in 2030.
Commercial space station developers are concerned that a lack of commitment to a continuous presence in space could hinder the development of viable ISS alternatives. The outcome of NASA's reassessment will shape the next phase of the Commercial LEO Development (CLD) program, which will allocate funding for ISS replacements in 2026.
Industry leaders have differing opinions on the reassessment. Tejpaul Bhatia, chief revenue officer of Axiom Space, believes that a sustained human presence in space is crucial for the growth of the commercial space sector. On the other hand, Max Haot, CEO of Vast, is optimistic that the reassessment could lead to the procurement of an initial space station module that does not require permanent crew presence from the outset. This suggests that a phased approach to developing life support technologies in orbit could be more effective.
The current procurement framework requires any new commercial destination to be permanently crewed from day one. Some industry leaders advocate for a more flexible approach. They propose that NASA should consider procuring an initial module capable of being crewed for limited durations while the ISS remains operational. This strategy would allow for iterative improvements in life support technology, ultimately leading to a permanently crewed station.
Commercial space companies, such as Vast and Axiom Space, have their own plans for launching ISS replacements. Vast plans to launch the first module of its ISS replacement, Haven-2, by 2028, contingent on being selected in 2026. They also aim to introduce Haven-1, a single-module station designed for short stays, in the latter half of 2025. Axiom Space plans to launch the first module of its commercial space station in 2026, initially attaching it to the ISS before expanding and operating independently. These developments highlight the competitive nature of the commercial space sector as it seeks to fill the gap left by the ISS.
There are concerns about the potential risks of a gap in U.S. human spaceflight capabilities. Peter McGrath, chief financial officer of Intuitive Machines and a former Boeing engineer involved in the ISS's design, warns that a lack of U.S. alternatives could lead to increased reliance on foreign partners, particularly Russia, which could have geopolitical implications. He emphasizes the need for a balanced approach that puts pressure on commercial entities to meet deadlines while avoiding the creation of a gap that could benefit competitors like China. Max Haot also shares these concerns and suggests that if there is no overlap between the ISS and a U.S.-based alternative, extending ISS access would be necessary. He advocates for a procurement strategy that optimizes for overlap between the existing station and future commercial options.
The decisions made by NASA in the coming years will have significant implications for the future of human spaceflight. Balancing innovation in the private sector with a reliable presence in LEO will be crucial in shaping the next era of space exploration.