India is preparing for a milder winter this year, which has raised concerns among agricultural experts about its impact on crop yields and food inflation.
Retail inflation reached a 14-month high of 6.2 percent in October, largely due to soaring food prices. A warmer winter could disrupt agricultural cycles, leading to reduced crop production and increased volatility in food prices.
The area sown for rabi crops has increased compared to the previous year, but there are concerns about how warmer temperatures could affect yields. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, highlighted that while the expansion in sown area is promising, a warmer winter could hinder the expected moderation in food inflation.
Former Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain emphasized the challenges posed by delayed wheat sowing, particularly in Punjab, where high winter temperatures have affected the harvesting of paddy. Abnormally high temperatures could adversely impact various wheat varieties in Punjab and Haryana, as well as other crops such as mustard and chana.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal minimum temperatures across most regions during the winter season from December 2024 to February 2025. This prediction follows a notably warm November, which recorded the second-highest average maximum temperature since 1901. Such climatic conditions threaten agricultural productivity, food security, and economic stability in the region.
The potential decline in crop yields due to warmer winter temperatures could have far-reaching implications for food prices in India. With food inflation already a significant contributor to overall retail inflation, any disruption in agricultural output could lead to sustained high prices for essential commodities.
The interconnectedness of agricultural performance and inflation highlights the importance of monitoring weather patterns and their effects on crop cycles. Policymakers and stakeholders must remain vigilant in addressing these challenges. Investment in climate-resilient agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the effects of extreme weather on crop yields will be necessary.
In summary, the anticipated warmer winter in India poses significant risks to agricultural productivity and food inflation. Experts warn of potential declines in crop yields, which could have profound economic implications for consumers and the broader economy. Proactive measures are needed to safeguard food security and stabilize prices.