The economic outlook for Europe and the US is a mixed bag.
The United States and Spain are seen as stable, while Germany faces uncertainty.
Thomas Stucki, Head of Investment at St.Galler Kantonalbank, is cautiously optimistic about the US economy, predicting positive growth until 2025. He does not anticipate a recession or negative interest rates, but rather a gradual decline. Stucki believes the Federal Reserve's commitment to managing inflation and stability will support the US economy. He also expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates twice, maintaining low borrowing costs.
Germany's economic situation is described as uncertain, with hopes that a new government could drive recovery.
Spain is expected to play a crucial role in revitalizing the European economy.
Stucki recommends a cautious approach to stock selection, favoring sectors like technology, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. He advises caution with investments in emerging markets and China due to volatility. Stucki suggests allocating 5 to 10 percent of portfolios to gold for security. Cryptocurrencies are seen as speculative investments.
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are significant factors influencing market dynamics.
Stucki remains optimistic about the US economy's potential to provide a solid foundation for investment. The actions of the US Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank will be influential.
The economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with the US economy expected to continue positive development and Spain's recovery potentially boosting the European economy. Strategic asset allocation and sector selection are important for investors. Technology and pharmaceuticals are favored sectors. Economic indicators, geopolitical events, and central bank policies will shape the investment landscape.