RBI Revises Inflation Forecast Upward Amid Disappointing Economic Data

The inflation forecast for December has been revised by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to 4.8 percent, up from the previous estimate of 4.5 percent.

This adjustment comes after disappointing economic data in the first two quarters of fiscal 2024-25, where inflation exceeded the central bank's expectations and went beyond its upper tolerance limit of 6 percent in October.

In the past, the RBI has consistently underestimated inflation at the beginning of the year, with a pattern of upward revisions by December since FY20.

In the first quarter, inflation was on target at 4.9 percent, but it increased to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, which was significantly higher than the RBI's earlier forecast of 3.8 percent.

The recent adjustments made by the central bank reflect the ongoing challenges in accurately predicting inflation trends amidst fluctuating economic conditions.

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