The market is currently experiencing the "Trump Trade," which is characterized by rising equity indices, a strengthening dollar, and increasing interest rates. This is due to expectations of fiscal stimulus and regulatory relief under Donald Trump's potential policies.
As a result, there is a possibility of an inflationary environment in the U.S., leading to the rally in rates and the dollar. Despite recent polling numbers showing Trump's resurgence, Kamala Harris has maintained a slight lead since August. While polls are not definitive indicators of election outcomes, the market's strong positioning on the Trump Trade, despite Trump trailing in the polls, suggests a psychological bias that may be excessive.