Serbia's foreign policy under President Aleksandar Vucic involves a delicate balancing act between Western interests and Eastern alliances.
Vucic has managed to maintain close ties with Russia while also seeking closer relations with the European Union. This approach has allowed Serbia to benefit economically from EU investments while engaging in military cooperation with Russia. There have been allegations that Serbia has indirectly supplied weapons to Ukraine, highlighting the complex geopolitical interests at play.
Recently, Vucic has shown interest in the Brics group, led by Russia, but has reassured Western partners by declining an invitation to attend the Brics summit in Russia. Instead, he sent Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, who is known to be an ally of Putin. This decision demonstrates Vucic's strategy of maintaining a delicate balance between Western and Eastern powers while safeguarding Serbia's national interests.
Serbia's economic revival is closely tied to its foreign policy maneuvers. The country has been exporting significant quantities of military ammunition, with reports indicating exports reaching nearly 800 million francs since 2022. Vucic acknowledges the potential for these weapons to end up in Ukraine but emphasizes that Serbia cannot control their ultimate use. This pragmatic approach allows Serbia to capitalize on its defense industry while navigating international law and sanctions.
Serbia's economic relationship with Russia, particularly in the energy sector, has been beneficial. Vucic has expressed gratitude for the continued supply of cheap Russian gas, which is critical for the country. Despite pressure from the EU to impose sanctions on Russia, Vucic has firmly stated that such measures are not on the table, solidifying Serbia's position as a reliable partner for Moscow.
In addition to military and economic ties, Serbia has become a focal point for Russian propaganda efforts in the region. Russian state media outlets operate freely in Serbia, influencing public opinion and disseminating pro-Russian sentiment across the Balkans.
The Serbian government has faced criticism for its handling of media freedom and the judiciary, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Serbia's foreign policy strategy. While seeking EU financial support, Serbia appears to be sidestepping the bloc's demands for transparency and accountability.
The intricate relationship between Serbia and Russia extends to military transactions, with Serbian companies reportedly circumventing Western sanctions to supply Russia with essential components. This clandestine trade undermines Western sanctions and positions Serbia as a critical player in the regional supply chain.
Serbia's strategic decisions will have implications for regional stability and international relations. The country's economic future and its role in Southeast Europe will be closely monitored by analysts and policymakers.