OAT-Bund spread signals market nervousness but no panic in France

IG

The OAT-Bund spread, which measures the yield differential between French and German 10-year bonds, is currently just under 90 basis points, indicating a state of nervousness in the markets rather than outright panic.

During the subprime crisis in 2009, this spread reached 70 basis points, reflecting significant market distress.

Despite the widening spread, there is no evidence of contagion affecting the broader eurozone sovereign bond market, as the Italy-Germany spread remains stable at around 120 basis points, its lowest in three years.

European 10-year yields have been declining since early November due to trade concerns with the U.S. and deteriorating PMI activity indices in the eurozone, alongside expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

In a positive development, France's AA- rating with a stable outlook was maintained by Standard & Poor's, which is seen as a reassuring sign amid current market conditions.

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