The financial landscape in 2024 has demonstrated remarkable resilience, defying numerous potential pitfalls that could have derailed market performance. Share prices can ascend despite negative news and various risk factors, a phenomenon often referred to as climbing a "wall of worry."
This year, characterized as a super election year, has been rife with geopolitical tensions, recession fears, and uncertainties surrounding central bank policies. Yet, these challenges have not deterred the capital markets, which have shown exceptional strength, particularly in risky asset classes.
The backdrop of this market performance includes a notable increase in US corporate profits and unexpectedly robust economic growth. Central banks, responding to declining inflation, have begun to pivot their interest rate strategies, with the Federal Reserve making a significant cut of 50 basis points in September. This decision came amidst a thriving labor market and strong economic indicators, suggesting that the anticipated recession has not yet materialized.
The political landscape, particularly the US elections, has also played a crucial role, with the resolution of electoral uncertainty leading to marked price movements in the stock market.
In the bond market, expectations are shifting towards a decline in yields for euro government bonds in the medium term. Following a brief uptick, analysts anticipate a downward trend, particularly for German government bonds. This outlook extends to Italian and French bonds, where a reduction in risk premiums is expected. Conversely, the sentiment surrounding US and Canadian government bonds remains less optimistic, as yields are projected to decrease at a slower pace compared to their European counterparts.
Corporate bonds are also under scrutiny, with a moderately positive stance on EUR investment-grade corporate bonds. However, caution prevails as market participants navigate the complexities of the current economic environment. Emerging market bonds, particularly those denominated in hard currency, continue to attract interest, although China’s economic indicators have recently underperformed relative to other Asian markets, prompting expectations of further government stimulus.
Developed equity markets have maintained their strength, bolstered by consistent earnings growth and the recent political developments in the US. The victory of Donald Trump has injected optimism into the US stock market, yet the overall indicators present a mixed picture. As a result, a neutral stance is being adopted by many investors, reflecting the uncertainty that still looms over the market.
Emerging equity markets face a more complex scenario. The recent volatility in Chinese equities has raised questions about how these markets will respond to a Trump presidency, particularly concerning potential protectionist trade policies. The manufacturing sector could be significantly impacted, making it crucial for investors to monitor the unfolding economic policies and their implications for global trade dynamics.
The international commodity markets have exhibited a varied performance, with cyclical industrial metals and energy commodities experiencing price declines. In contrast, the precious metals sector has continued to rise, defying the trend seen in other commodity categories. This divergence highlights the complexities within the commodity markets, where different sectors respond uniquely to economic signals and investor sentiment.
Currently, there is no tactical asset allocation in commodities, reflecting a cautious approach amidst the mixed signals from various market segments. As investors navigate these fluctuations, the focus remains on identifying opportunities that align with broader economic trends and geopolitical developments.
In summary, the financial markets in 2024 are characterized by a blend of resilience and caution. While the capital markets have shown strength in the face of uncertainty, the bond and equity markets present a mixed outlook that requires careful navigation. As geopolitical tensions and economic policies continue to evolve, market participants must remain vigilant and adaptable to the changing landscape.