UBS has revised its lithium price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting a tighter market despite a deteriorating global demand outlook.

The bank now predicts that supply growth will lag behind demand growth, resulting in a reduction of the global surplus and a restoration of market balance by 2027-2028.

UBS has lowered its supply estimate for 2025 by around 18% due to supply restrictions and project delays caused by a significant price drop. Consequently, the forecast for spodumene prices has been raised by 7% to $800 per tonne for 2025 and by 17% to $850 per tonne for 2026.