Lebanon is currently facing a complex political landscape amidst ongoing conflict with Israel.
The country's foreign minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, recently discussed Lebanon's position, stating that the government had no control over the decision to engage in warfare. He acknowledged the presence of Hezbollah, a powerful political and paramilitary entity in Lebanon, but emphasized that the Lebanese people do not support the war.
Bou Habib also mentioned that Hezbollah holds a significant number of seats in parliament and exerts control over various regions, including borders and airports. However, he insisted that the Lebanese government is not under Iranian influence, although Iran has allies within the country.
Lebanon is committed to a cease-fire agreement brokered by the U.S. and France, which aims to facilitate the return of displaced individuals. However, both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of violations shortly after the cease-fire was implemented.
The conflict has caused severe economic damage, with the World Bank estimating losses of approximately $8.5 billion. The ongoing instability has led to a projected contraction of Lebanon's GDP by 6.6% in 2024. The country is in urgent need of reconstruction, but funding remains a significant challenge. Lebanon's infrastructure, including roads, water facilities, schools, and hospitals, has been extensively damaged.
The historical context of Gulf Arab states aiding Lebanon's recovery after the 2006 war contrasts with the current situation, where economic decline and Hezbollah's influence may deter international support. The Lebanese government is currently in a caretaker format, lacking a president since 2022, which further complicates the political landscape. The sectarian power-sharing agreement that underpins Lebanon's political system has been criticized for contributing to the ongoing deadlock.
The economic outlook for Lebanon is bleak, and the country faces the challenge of addressing immediate humanitarian needs while planning for long-term reconstruction efforts. Bou Habib remains cautiously optimistic about the cease-fire and the potential for international support, but the reality on the ground suggests that Lebanon's recovery will be a complex and difficult process. A cohesive strategy is needed to address both the humanitarian crisis and the economic fallout. Lebanon's future will be shaped by domestic politics, regional influences, and international aid as it seeks to emerge from the consequences of conflict and instability.