The euro zone is facing financial stability risks due to trade tensions, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ECB"s latest Financial Stability Review highlights that these tensions could negatively impact the euro area economy, shifting the focus from high inflation to weak growth as the primary threat.
Recent data shows that euro zone economic growth reached a two-year high of 0.4% in the third quarter, while inflation stood at 2% in October.
However, the ECB warns that volatility in financial markets, stretched valuations, and concentrated risks could lead to more fluctuations than usual.
The report emphasizes the potential impact of protectionist policies, particularly the US administration"s plans to impose tariffs on imports.
Economists warn that a slowdown in exports resulting from these measures could prompt the ECB to consider more aggressive interest rate cuts, further complicating the economic landscape for the euro zone.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expresses concerns about the fragile state of economic activity in the euro area, noting that while inflation trends have improved, the growth outlook remains bleak.
The ECB"s report also highlights uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and the unpredictable policies of the new US administration.
The report raises concerns about corporate balance sheets, particularly in terms of high borrowing costs and sluggish growth.
Small- and medium-sized enterprises, as well as lower-income households, may face increased credit risks if economic growth slows more than expected.
The ECB warns that in a climate of uncertainty, a sudden sharp reversal in risk sentiment could occur, driven by high asset valuations and concentrated risk exposures within the financial system.
As the euro zone grapples with these challenges, investors are advised to remain vigilant as the interplay between trade tensions, economic growth, and monetary policy could lead to increased volatility in asset prices.
The ECB"s findings highlight the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential ripple effects of trade policies on financial stability.