UniCredit has surprised market observers by announcing a public exchange offer for Banco BPM. The all-paper transaction, valued at approximately €10.1 billion, will require a dedicated capital increase.

The offer aims to acquire all of Banco BPM's shares at a price of €6.657 per share, totaling €10,086,832,606 if fully subscribed. This move comes at a time when UniCredit has been increasing its stake in Banco BPM, while the latter is in the process of completing its own takeover bid. The situation is described as complex and has implications for the consolidation of the Italian banking sector.

Furthermore, there is speculation that the European Central Bank may announce a 50 basis point interest rate cut in December, reflecting recent declines in manufacturing and service activity. This development highlights a trend towards consolidation in the Italian credit market, with UniCredit's aggressive strategy indicating increased competition among major banks such as Commerzbank and Banco BPM.