Commodity markets had a turbulent start to the week ending November 22, but most ended on a positive note as traders reacted to geopolitical tensions, cabinet appointments by former President Trump, and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
A strong Services PMI report indicated a resilient US economy, resulting in a nearly 2 percent increase in key US indices. The US Dollar index reached a two-year high, surpassing the 108 mark, which reflects a boost in economic activity. In November, the flash Composite PMI for the US rose to 55.3, its highest level since April 2022.
On the other hand, the Eurozone's Composite PMI fell into contraction at 48.1, down from 50 in October, causing the euro to decline to 1.033, its lowest level since November 2022. These contrasting economic signals have increased trade tensions, while Federal Reserve officials have expressed mixed opinions on the possibility of a rate cut or pause in December. Current market expectations show a 52.7 percent chance of a 25-basis-point cut, a decrease from 80 percent earlier in the month, as traders evaluate the evolving economic landscape.