Marcellus' Krishnan expects that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise down its full-year growth forecast in its upcoming announcement on December 6.
The GDP growth rate in the first half of the financial year was around 6 percent, which makes the RBI's initial projection of over 7 percent for the full year seem less achievable. This is especially true considering the expectation of over 8 percent growth in the second half of FY25.
Krishnan also pointed out that the Q2FY25 earnings season has seen markets react negatively to disappointing results, and this trend may continue if the consumption slowdown persists. As a result, there could be further downgrades in earnings, particularly in certain market segments that have high valuations.
Additionally, Krishnan emphasized that while domestic flows are important for market support, they are no longer enough to counteract the significant impact of foreign outflows that have been observed since October.