The upcoming US election has far-reaching implications for Europe, Switzerland, and global democracy.
The choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represents a crucial decision between upholding democratic norms or succumbing to demagoguery. Trump's policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, may appeal to some, but his intentions to reshape the American political system and weaken checks and balances raise concerns about the erosion of democratic institutions.
Outcome Impact on Ukraine Conflict
The outcome of the election will significantly impact the conflict in Ukraine, with Trump potentially advocating for a frozen conflict that allows Russia to retain territories. Trump's strategy may involve leveraging energy markets to undermine Putin's position, but it does not include deploying American troops to protect Ukraine, placing the burden on European nations. Swiss Federal Councillor Albert Rösti's preference for Trump as a peace facilitator in Ukraine is countered by the argument that imposing peace on an attacked nation is not a viable solution. The violation of international law by Russia further complicates the situation.
Implications for Switzerland
For Switzerland, the US election has implications for trade relations and geopolitical dynamics. A Trump presidency could lead to demands for Switzerland to balance its trade surplus with the US, and the unpredictability in multilateral trade relations managed by the WTO is a concern for the Swiss economy. The reliability of the US as a security partner for Europe is also in question, as Switzerland has benefited from the US nuclear umbrella.
Redefining US-European Relations
The election's outcome could redefine US-European relations in terms of security and trade, with the stability of transatlantic partnerships and international alliances at stake. The election remains volatile, with polling data indicating a close race. While predictions are difficult, recent trends suggest a potential victory for Trump, which would have profound implications for domestic and international politics. The outcome of the election will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.