As the US approaches a closely contested presidential election, market trends are being closely watched, particularly those related to Donald Trump.

There is a historical correlation between stock market performance and election outcomes, with the party in power typically winning when the market rises before the election.

A stock market indicator developed by CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall has accurately predicted election results since 1944.

According to the indicator, if the S&P 500 rises between the end of July and Halloween in an election year, the incumbent party is likely to retain the presidency.

This year, the S&P 500 saw a 3.3 percent increase during this period, potentially signaling a favorable outcome for the current administration.

Investors are closely monitoring these trends as they assess the implications for the upcoming election, with past patterns showing an 82 percent accuracy rate in predicting outcomes based on stock market movements.

The strong performance of the market in 2024 adds another layer of interest to the unfolding political landscape.