ASEAN has proven to be resilient and adaptable in the face of trade tensions between the United States and China.
Despite the ongoing trade war initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018, ASEAN has managed to strengthen its trade and investment relationships with both superpowers.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that ASEAN economies have not only maintained but also expanded their market share in imports from both China and the U.S. since 2018. This indicates a growing integration of ASEAN into the global economy.
The trade war has led to accelerated export growth for products targeted by tariffs in ASEAN countries like Vietnam. However, other ASEAN members such as Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore have faced stagnation or slowed growth in their export sectors.
ASEAN has benefited from trade diversion and has diversified its export destinations, reducing reliance on any single market. Intra-ASEAN trade has also increased, strengthening the bloc's economic cohesion.
While the current trends are positive, the IMF warns of potential risks from intensified geopolitical pressures, which could reduce external demand for ASEAN. The region's ability to maintain economic momentum will depend on its capacity to adapt to shifting global dynamics and foster internal cohesion among member states.