The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is expected to experience strong economic growth in the coming years, with projections indicating a GDP growth of over 5 percent by 2025.
Financial institutions such as UBS Global Wealth Management and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have highlighted the impact of global factors on the UAE's economic trajectory. They emphasize the influence of oil production and monetary policy adjustments on the country's economic growth.
The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) forecasts strong performance in international trade throughout 2024 and 2025. They estimate non-hydrocarbon GDP growth at 5.4 percent in 2024 and 5.3 percent in 2025. The hydrocarbon sector is projected to grow modestly in 2024 but rebound significantly with an 8.4 percent increase in 2025. This dual growth in both sectors reflects the UAE's diversified economic strategy.
The IMF predicts a GDP growth of 4 percent for 2024, rising to 5.1 percent in 2025, aligning closely with UBS's estimates. They also highlight the significant impact of global factors such as stimulus measures from China and adjustments in U.S. monetary policy on the UAE's economic landscape. The IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects growth in the Middle East and Central Asia, with the UAE's economy benefiting from global economic stability.
The World Bank forecasts GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2024, rising to 4.1 percent in 2025 and 2026. They attribute this growth to the rebound in oil production and the non-oil sector. Industries such as tourism, real estate, construction, transportation, and manufacturing are expected to contribute to this growth. The World Bank also notes a decline in the UAE's current account surplus.
The CBUAE estimates a real GDP growth of 3.9 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, reflecting confidence in the UAE's economic resilience. They believe that the UAE's proactive measures and commitment to diversification will support its economic performance. Strong sectoral growth, favorable global conditions, and strategic policy decisions will be key to achieving the UAE's economic goals.