NMDC maintains hold rating with revised target amid pricing uncertainties

NMDC's revenue for the latest quarter was Rs. 4,807 crore, showing a 19.7% increase compared to the previous year but a 10.6% decline compared to the previous quarter.

Iron ore sales reached 9.7 million tonnes, with a 1.8% year-on-year growth but a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The average realization price for iron ore was Rs. 4,935 per tonne, reflecting a 17.7% increase compared to the previous year but a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous quarter.

The company's EBITDA was recorded at Rs. 1,440 crore, which is a 20.7% increase compared to the previous year. However, it fell short of estimates due to a reduction in inventory value, resulting in an EBITDA per tonne of Rs. 1,479. Analysts suggest that the recent price hike may not be sustainable given the ongoing pressure on global iron ore prices.

NMDC is expected to benefit from strong volume growth aligned with the rising demand in India's steel sector. Sharekhan has given a "Hold" rating with a revised price target of Rs. 240. The stock currently trades at 5.3x and 4.8x its FY26 and FY27 EV/EBITDA, respectively.

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