water utilities face dividend cuts as regulator decision approaches

Dividend cuts are expected for water utilities ahead of the upcoming price regime decision from regulator Ofwat.

Pennon Group PLC is predicted to experience a definitive cut, while the outlook for United Utilities Group PLC and Severn Trent PLC remains uncertain.

The regulator has proposed a £95 annual increase per household by 2029/30, but the industry is advocating for a £175 increase.

UBS estimates a compromise of £125-135.

In terms of financial performance, Pennon is expected to report the weakest results, with forecasts of £83 million EBIT and a loss per share of 1.8p.

On the other hand, United Utilities is projected to achieve underlying EBIT of £326 million and EPS of 20.3p, while Severn Trent is anticipated to report EBIT of £299 million and EPS of 41.7p.

UBS will closely monitor Pennon's financial leverage ratios, but maintains a 'buy' rating despite the expected 25% dividend cut.

United Utilities is also rated a 'buy' with a price target of 1,180p, while Severn Trent is rated a 'sell' with a price target of 2,390p, reflecting a 17% premium to RAB.

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