Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is expected to win the upcoming election, resulting in a divided Congress, according to UBS.

UBS assigns a 40% probability to this outcome, noting that while Harris has maintained an advantage over Donald Trump, the race is becoming closer as voter sentiment changes.

Recent analysis suggests that Harris' initial momentum has leveled off, resulting in a close race between the two candidates as the election approaches.

UBS highlights that control of Congress is expected to be divided, with Republicans likely to gain control of the Senate and Democrats positioned to retain a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

The report emphasizes the challenges Democrats face in the Senate due to an unfavorable electoral map, increasing the likelihood of a shift in control to the GOP.

However, Democrats are seen as well-positioned in the House, given the number of Republican-held seats in districts won by Biden compared to those held by Democrats in districts won by Trump.

The report assigns a 65% probability to Democrats retaining control of the House.