A French trader has made a bold move on the Polymarket platform by placing over $28 million in bets on former President Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election. This has attracted attention and scrutiny, especially as it coincides with a shift in betting odds favoring Trump, despite national polls showing a competitive race against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
The trader, who has extensive trading experience and a background in financial services, controls four accounts on Polymarket and has funded them through the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. Investigations have found no evidence of market manipulation or attempts to influence betting odds.
Political betting markets are increasingly seen as indicators of candidate support, with Trump's supporters pointing to the widening odds gap on Polymarket as a sign of his growing backing. However, it is important to understand that prediction markets measure the likelihood of events occurring rather than gauging voter intentions.
The trader's total position on the presidential election bet is valued at approximately $28.6 million, making them one of the top holders on the pro-Trump side of the market. They have also placed over $7 million on the outcome of the popular vote. The trader is taking a directional position based on personal views regarding the election, and has agreed not to open additional accounts without prior notice.
Political betting markets have faced controversy and regulatory scrutiny, with Polymarket being banned for U.S. traders and other platforms like Kalshi facing challenges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The intersection of cryptocurrency, trading, and political forecasting is likely to become more complex as the 2024 election approaches.
The actions of the French trader on Polymarket raise questions about the implications for traders and the electoral process.