The potential for the United States to relinquish its role as a leader in global climate policy has become increasingly apparent with the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
Following a campaign that promised to dismantle significant climate legislation and a first term marked by the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the incoming administration is poised to further isolate the U.S. from international climate efforts.
Analysts suggest that Trump may announce a formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as early as 2025, completing the process by 2026. This move could extend to exiting the entire United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, effectively ceding leadership to China, which is eager to take a more proactive stance on climate issues.
Experts warn that allowing China to dominate the climate agenda would be a significant misstep for the U.S. The global demand for low-carbon technologies is rising, and without U.S. involvement, countries may increasingly rely on China for solutions.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), introduced by President Joe Biden, aims to counter this trend by fostering domestic clean energy industries and creating a competitive edge against China, not only for the U.S. market but also for potential exports.
The IRA represents a critical effort to bolster the U.S. position in clean energy technology and manufacturing. It seeks to establish robust supply chains that reduce dependence on China, which currently dominates the clean energy manufacturing sector.
If the U.S. relinquishes its leadership in this area, it risks allowing China to further entrench its influence in emerging and developing markets. The IRA is designed to create a competitive landscape for clean energy technologies, ensuring that the U.S. remains a key player in the global transition to sustainable energy.
Despite Trump's vocal opposition to the IRA, the legislation has garnered bipartisan support, complicating any efforts to dismantle it. A significant portion of new clean energy jobs created since the IRA's passage are located in districts represented by Republicans.
This bipartisan backing suggests that a complete repeal of the IRA could be politically unfeasible, as many lawmakers recognize the economic benefits of clean energy initiatives. Eighteen House Republicans have even urged their leadership to preserve certain tax credits and deductions within the IRA, indicating a growing acknowledgment of the importance of clean energy investments.
While the Trump administration's approach to climate policy may lead to a vacuum in international leadership, there are indications that subnational actors in the U.S. could step in to fill this gap.
During Trump's first term, when the U.S. withdrew from the Paris Agreement, various states and local governments took it upon themselves to engage in climate diplomacy. Governors and senators actively participated in international climate negotiations, demonstrating a commitment to addressing climate change despite federal withdrawal.
Former California Governor Jerry Brown was particularly notable for his efforts in climate diplomacy, establishing the California-China Climate Institute to facilitate high-level discussions between the U.S. and China on climate issues. Current California Governor Gavin Newsom continues this legacy, indicating that even in the absence of federal leadership, states can play a crucial role in shaping climate policy and fostering international cooperation.
As the global landscape for climate policy evolves, the implications of a Trump-led administration on U.S. leadership in this arena remain uncertain. The potential withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the broader UN climate framework could significantly alter the dynamics of international climate negotiations.
However, the bipartisan support for clean energy initiatives, as evidenced by the IRA, suggests that there may still be avenues for the U.S. to maintain a competitive edge in clean technology development.
The ongoing competition with China in the clean energy sector underscores the importance of strategic investments and policies that promote innovation and sustainability. As the world increasingly turns its attention to climate change, the ability of the U.S. to navigate this complex landscape will be critical.
The interplay between federal policies and subnational actions will likely shape the future of U.S. climate leadership and its role in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.