The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in December, with further reductions anticipated in 2025. This could result in a total decrease of 125 basis points by the end of 2025, bringing the key interest rate to a range of 3.25% to 3.5%.
The current economic landscape in the United States is strong, supported by consumer spending and a robust domestic services sector. However, the manufacturing sector is facing challenges due to weaker global demand.
There are differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy, with concerns about persistently high inflation. Overall inflation is slowing, but core inflation remains elevated due to rising housing costs. Potential tariff increases could pose a risk to inflation trends, although they are expected to result in short-term price hikes rather than sustained medium-term inflation.
The political landscape in the United States adds uncertainty, as the level of uncertainty is high leading up to Trump's inauguration. The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in Congress, but it is uncertain whether they will successfully implement Trump's proposed political reforms. The interplay between economic indicators and political developments is important, as it could influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates.
The potential for further interest rate cuts could support economic expansion, even as GDP growth is expected to moderate. The labor market is also showing signs of a slowdown, which may complicate the Fed's approach to monetary policy. The actions of the Federal Reserve will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics, as the anticipated interest rate cuts and political uncertainties create a complex environment for economic growth and stability.
Market participants will need to closely monitor these developments, as they could impact various asset classes, including equities and cryptocurrencies.