Oil prices have faced significant volatility, dropping to levels unseen since late 2021, driven by extreme bearish sentiment and unprecedented short positions. However, potential supply constraints from OPEC+ cuts, geopolitical risks, and unexpected demand boosts from economic stimuli and travel recovery could lead to a price rebound. Despite institutional pessimism, factors like developing world growth and petrochemical demand suggest that long-term oil demand may remain robust, creating a scenario for a swift market reversal.
IG
World Bank Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, arrived in Dhaka on September 18, 2024, for a two-day visit. He is set to meet with key government officials, including the Chief Adviser and Finance Adviser, as the World Bank continues its longstanding support for Bangladesh, having committed approximately $44 billion since the country's independence.
Seven Swiss institutions, including UBS, BCV, and BKB, are participating in the Agorá project, which aims to explore the integration of customer deposits and central bank money into a programmable financial platform. Launched by the Bank for International Settlements and seven central banks, the project seeks to enhance the monetary system through tokenization and smart contracts. The initiative, involving 41 private financial institutions globally, is set to run until 2025.
The Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, with options of a 25 or 50 basis point reduction. Market sentiment leans towards a 50 bps cut, but expectations suggest a more cautious 25 bps reduction may be likely, reflecting mixed economic signals. The upcoming FOMC meeting will also provide insights through economic projections and the dot-plot chart, influencing market reactions, particularly in Forex and U.S. equities.
Germany's economic growth is showing signs of cooling, with the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropping from 19.2 to 3.6 in September. Despite a slight GDP increase of 0.2% in Q1, the economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2, and private consumption is faltering due to high inflation and changing consumer preferences. The outlook suggests a challenging period ahead, with stagnation and slight declines in GDP likely in the coming months.
Ethereum's price has surged ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, where a decision on interest rates is anticipated. Investors are speculating on a potential rate hike of 25 or 50 basis points, with a 63% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Additionally, the US election campaign is expected to influence market dynamics, particularly following a recent debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with hopes for a crypto-friendly administration.
IG
A Danish woman changed her name to sell her Verbier apartment to herself, aiming to clear her debts. The notary involved is charged with forgery for failing to verify her identity, while the Banque cantonale du Valais, deceived in a mortgage deal, has also faced scrutiny. The case is ongoing, with a verdict pending.

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