The recent IMF-World Bank Meetings highlighted a consensus on a soft landing for the economy, with inflation nearing targets and expectations of aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve, benefiting emerging markets. Countries like Kenya and El Salvador have successfully restructured debts, while Zambia and Ghana have exited restructuring, improving investor sentiment towards EM debt. Concerns about fiscal sustainability in developed markets contrast with the resilience seen in emerging economies, attributed to better monetary policy and fiscal management.
Morgan Stanley has adopted a neutral stance on El Salvador's debt, citing limited potential for further gains following a 20% rally in recent months. The bank's global head of emerging-market sovereign credit strategy, Simon Waever, noted that some bonds are nearing par for the first time in years, driven by optimism over the government's fiscal discipline and a potential agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
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