The primary care market in the United States is expected to undergo significant changes by 2030, driven by the increasing influence of nontraditional providers such as retailers and payers.
According to a report from Bain and Company, nontraditional providers could capture up to 30% of the primary care market by 2030, reflecting a fundamental shift in how healthcare is delivered and financed.
Nontraditional providers, particularly payers, are expected to play a crucial role in this transformation. Companies like UnitedHealth Group and Humana have already established health services organizations that enable them to navigate the complexities of primary care delivery.
On the other hand, retailers have faced challenges in establishing a strong presence in the primary care market, with consumer preferences limiting their potential market.
Advanced primary care providers are emerging as leaders in the transition towards population-specific care models, demonstrating improved clinical outcomes and cost savings. However, they must adapt to economic conditions and evolving regulatory frameworks.
Traditional primary care providers are turning to value-based care enablers for support as they seek to remain independent. These enablers, such as Aledade and agilon health, are gaining traction and could hold around 10% of the primary care market by 2030.
Traditional health systems are at a crossroads and may pursue different strategic paths, such as becoming preferred specialty and tertiary care providers or developing innovative care models.
The ownership structure of the primary care market is expected to evolve, with nontraditional providers capturing significant market share. The emphasis on population-focused care models will continue to drive change, despite regulatory and reimbursement challenges.
The next few years will be crucial in shaping the future of primary care in the United States.