Most wealthy investors are contemplating portfolio adjustments ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election, with 77% considering new allocations. The economy is viewed as the top election issue by 84% of investors, who are nearly split on which candidate—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—would manage it better. Potential beneficiaries of Harris's policies include healthcare and sustainable investing sectors, while Trump's presidency could favor defense and energy industries.
Oil prices have retreated as developments in Libya ease supply concerns, with expectations of increased oil flow following agreements on central bank governance. Meanwhile, China's government is pushing for economic growth amid a downturn, while upcoming US price data and Fed Chairman Powell's speech may influence market dynamics.
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LLB Switzerland has expanded its presence by opening a new branch in St.Gallen, located at St.Leonhard-Strasse 49. The team includes three experienced advisors: Jonas Niggli, overseeing corporate clients; Maria Colicchio, leading private banking; and Marco Giannotta, a senior advisor for corporate clients. This move marks a significant step in LLB's strategic growth.
Gold reached a record high of USD 2,670/oz on September 24, driven by geopolitical concerns and a declining US dollar. CIO has upgraded its year-end target to USD 2,750/oz and mid-2025 target to USD 2,850/oz, emphasizing gold's long-term hedging benefits and recommending a 5% allocation in diversified portfolios. Despite signs of slowing Chinese demand, underlying interest remains strong, particularly with increasing ETF demand as uncertainty rises ahead of the US elections.
Regula Berger will relocate to Basel as the new Group CEO of Basler Kantonalbank, taking over from Basil Heeb next year. Although she has been with BKB since 2018, she has maintained her residence in Zurich. The move aligns with the unwritten rule for heads of cantonal banks to pay taxes in their respective cantons.
The ECB revoked Banque Havilland's banking license in Luxembourg, prompting the search for buyers for its subsidiaries. Andbank has withdrawn its interest in the Monaco branch, while a consortium of private individuals, including Martin Gilbert, is set to acquire it, pending regulatory approval. Meanwhile, the Liechtenstein subsidiary faces liquidation, with EFG International emerging as a potential buyer.
The ECB's banking supervisory authority revoked Banque Havilland's license in Luxembourg, prompting the search for buyers for its subsidiaries in Monaco and Vaduz/Zurich. Andbank backed out of acquiring the Monaco unit after due diligence, while a consortium of private individuals, including industry heavyweight Martin Gilbert, is set to take over, pending regulatory approval. In Vaduz, EFG International appears to be the frontrunner for an asset deal following the self-liquidation of the Liechtenstein subsidiary.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower its key policy rate further, with analysts predicting a cut to 0.75 percent by December. The bank's recent communication indicates a proactive stance on managing inflation and the strengthening franc, while also preparing markets for additional rate reductions in the coming months.
The Swiss franc is expected to remain slightly above the 0.95 mark against the euro in the coming weeks, influenced by recent trends in the dollar-franc and euro-franc exchange rates. The dollar's recent weakness, due to Fed interest rate cuts, has strengthened the franc against the euro, but a potential dollar rebound may lead to the franc losing some ground against the euro.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered its key interest rate to 1%, marking the third consecutive cut of 25 basis points. The SNB's unusually clear guidance indicates that further cuts may be necessary due to significant disinflationary trends and a strong Swiss franc, which has contributed to lower inflation rates. Another reduction is anticipated in December, followed by another in March.
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