Emerging markets (EM) may see potential upside as US exceptionalism wanes, with UBS forecasting a decline in US nominal GDP growth below 4% next year. This shift could lower the bar for EM, despite its own deceleration, as net portfolio flows into EM face a 20-year low. The upcoming US presidential election could further benefit EM, particularly under a divided government scenario with no new tariffs, potentially leading to a projected MSCI EM index of 1255 by the end of 2025, translating to around 10% total returns. However, challenges remain, including weak global trade, negligible EM risk premia, and potential tariff risks from China.