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Vikash Jain, India Strategist at CLSA, suggests that after a significant market correction, a short-term rally may occur despite uncertainties about whether it signals the start of a bull market or a bear market rally. He notes that the market has absorbed various negatives, including a weak earnings season and geopolitical tensions, but initial enthusiasm for China has waned. Jain anticipates that a rally could take shape before Donald Trump takes office in January.
Shankar Sharma has labeled CLSA"s recent "Buy India" note as a "trap" for retail investors and domestic institutions, criticizing the firm"s shift to a 20% overweight allocation in India while reducing exposure to China. He suggested that the note serves as a deceptive strategy by the Chinese-owned brokerage to mislead Indian investors, referring to it as a "Trojan Horse" designed to offload unwanted products onto them.
Vikash Jain, head of research at CLSA, expresses a bullish outlook for India"s long-term growth despite concerns over ongoing market corrections through 2025. He anticipates a potential short-term rally of 5-7% in the coming weeks, highlighting India"s consistent earnings trajectory and favorable demographics as key advantages.
India remains the most under-owned market by foreign investors among emerging markets, with foreign institutional investor (FII) ownership at just 17%. CLSA"s Alexander Redman highlights that expensive valuations have deterred foreign investment, but the current market correction presents a buying opportunity. Domestic investors are driving market momentum, offsetting $14 billion in net foreign selling since September, positioning India favorably amid potential international trade tensions.
Investors seeking to own India at a low valuation may face significant challenges, as the market"s growth and scale make it increasingly attractive. Shaun Cochran of CLSA highlights that quality growth comes at a price, and the vibrant domestic investment community further enhances India"s appeal, despite seemingly high valuations. The shift from China to India as a focal point for global markets presents a unique opportunity for investors.
India is positioned as the most insulated emerging market against potential tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, according to CLSA's Alexander Redman. With limited trade exposure to the US and manageable leverage, India is less sensitive to external shocks compared to countries like Mexico and China, which have higher GDP reliance on US exports.
India's energy import reliance poses significant risks, with net oil and gas imports reaching $79.3 billion for FY25, a 15% increase. CLSA highlights the country's vulnerability to price shocks due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran-Israel conflicts, despite some mitigation from discounted Russian oil imports.
CLSA's Alexander Redman emphasized the potential for increased foreign investment in India, suggesting that investors may soon have fewer reasons to remain underweight in the country. He expressed disappointment in Chinese equities and announced a tactical shift, raising India's allocation to 20% Overweight while reducing exposure to China.
Nifty futures indicate a positive start for Indian equities, reflecting a bullish trend in Asia. The selling pressure from foreign investors appears to be easing, and automakers reported a decent festive season, suggesting demand may not be as weak as previously feared.
Samir Arora, founder of Helios Capital, cautioned investors against overreacting to a recent CLSA report, emphasizing that it should not lead to undue excitement. He noted that the report's credibility is limited and suggested that investors are shifting from Indian markets to the USA rather than China. Arora also mentioned that foreign institutional investors have largely completed their selling in India.

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