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euro faces challenges as inflation and low interest rates threaten stability

The euro is experiencing long-term depreciation against the Swiss franc, driven by factors including inflation differentials and the Swiss National Bank's currency interventions. Despite a nominal decline, the euro has appreciated in real terms, yet concerns about low interest rates and potential deflation loom, raising fears of a eurozone crisis reminiscent of the lira's fate.
The Market
Swiss Franc Euro United States Dollar ECB
Finance & Economy, Market Report
04:58 03.12.2024

eurozone faces economic challenges amid falling inflation and rising risks

The Eurozone faces significant challenges as inflation declines while economic weaknesses emerge. Rising debt, trade conflicts, and geopolitical tensions pose additional risks, prompting a timely discussion with Philip Lane, chief economist of the ECB, on the current monetary policy landscape.
@FinancialTimes
Euro ECB Philip R. Lane Roula Khalaf Olaf Storbeck Soumaya Keynes Show more
Finance & Economy, Transcript
06:00 02.12.2024

gold price stagnates amid thanksgiving and rising german inflation

Gold trading is experiencing low momentum due to the Thanksgiving holiday, while German inflation has picked up, driven by base effects. The inflation rate rose to 2.2% year-on-year, with core inflation increasing to 3.0%. The dominant trading range for gold remains between $2,540 and $2,800, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies.
IG
Euro ECB DEU
TradFi, Market Report
17:43 28.11.2024

us consumer spending rises as inflation remains stable in europe

US consumer spending remains robust, with living standards reaching new economic highs, while inflation is primarily influenced by supply issues rather than demand. In Europe, ECB President Lagarde's political remarks on trade relations with the US raise concerns about the central bank's neutrality, as inflation figures in Spain and Germany are expected to rise but remain near 2%.
US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter point. US living standards continuously reach new highs (at least as measured in economic terms). The personal consumer expenditure deflator offered no surprises with regard to inflation—though it did show that inflation was more driven by supply problems than demand (according to Federal Reserve analysis).
Euro United States Dollar ECB USA DEU Paul Donovan Christine Lagarde
TradFi, Market Report
09:07 28.11.2024

Federal Reserve signals rate cuts amid tax hike discussions and consumer trends

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a potential series of gradual rate cuts next year, with a December reduction also possible. Meanwhile, US trade representative nominee Greer has backed higher consumer taxes, raising concerns about increased gasoline prices and impacts on the auto sector, as companies prepare for new tax liabilities. As the US gears up for Black Friday, key economic data on consumer spending and inflation is expected, while German consumer confidence remains less of a focus amid ongoing communications from the ECB.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A December rate cut is also plausible, bringing interest rate reductions in line with the decline in the inflation rate.
United States Dollar Apple Inc. ECB MEX USA Paul Donovan Donald Trump Judy Greer Show more
TradFi, Market Report
09:27 27.11.2024

markets respond positively to bessent's nomination amid economic policy concerns

Markets reacted positively to President-elect Trump's nomination of financier Bessent as treasury secretary, as investors favor orthodoxy and predictability in economic policy. Bessent's stance on trade tariffs aligns with Trump's previous approach, providing a voice of moderation amid differing cabinet opinions.Consumer sentiment data from Michigan reached a four-year high among Republicans, while Democrats showed a significant decline. As "Black Friday" approaches, a shift in consumer spending patterns is evident, with Tokyo department store sales dropping in October.
Markets reacted positively to US President-elect Trump nominating the financier Bessent as treasury secretary. Investors prefer orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence from economic policy; there were fears that some of the candidates may not possess those attributes. Bessent does. Bessent has said he regards taxing US consumers via trade tariffs as a bargaining tool—essentially the stance in Trump’s first term. Others in the cabinet disagree, but investors will be pleased there is one voice of trade tax moderation.
United States Dollar ECB USA Paul Donovan
TradFi, Market Report
09:54 25.11.2024

EU climate action stress test shows limited financial system impact

European regulators concluded that the EU"s goal to cut carbon emissions by 55% by 2030 would have a limited impact on the financial system, with potential initial losses of 3.9% rising to 20.7% under adverse macroeconomic conditions. The stress test involved 110 banks, 2,331 insurers, and 629 pension funds, emphasizing the need for a coordinated policy approach to integrate climate risks into financial management.
@FinancialTimes
Euro European Commission ECB ESAs European Central Bank Donald Trump Roula Khalaf Show more
Finance & Economy, News Article
12:56 19.11.2024

Bitcoin surges past 88000 as investors anticipate Trump’s crypto-friendly policies

Bitcoin has surged above $88,000 following Trump's election victory, with investors optimistic about potential crypto-friendly policies. The market rally is driven by hopes for government reserves and regulatory easing, although concerns about Trump's actual plans and possible market corrections linger. The $90,000 milestone is now within reach, but caution is advised as speculative buying increases.
IG
ECB FedEx Corporation USA Donald Trump
Crypto, Market Report
22:42 11.11.2024

us economy outpaces europe while spain shows strong growth potential

The US economy is experiencing robust growth, while the eurozone is lagging with a projected GDP increase of just 1% next year. Spain stands out with an expected growth of 2.8%, driven by a resurgence in tourism and strong service sector performance, contrasting with the slower recovery in Germany, France, and Italy. High immigration and EU aid further enhance Spain"s economic prospects.
Allnews
Swiss Franc United States Dollar Euro SNB ECB Raiffeisen USA CHE DEU ITA ESP FRA Show more
TradFi, Market Report
16:20 07.11.2024

Modest economic growth amid shifting inflation dynamics and central bank insights

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a modest economic growth, aligning with economists' projections, while consumers show resistance to profit-led inflation. Bank of England Governor Bailey noted unexpected disinflation, highlighting the disconnect between economic cycles and margin expansions. Business sentiment surveys suggest dire outcomes for manufacturing that have not materialized, as central bank speaker fatigue begins to set in among markets.
The authors of the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book are clearly followers of TikTok memes. The economy was described as being modest and demure (actually as growing at a “slight or modest pace” but it amounts to the same thing). The benign growth story fits with most economists’ central projections. On inflation, anecdotes suggested a more concerted resistance to profit-led inflation from consumers.
United States Dollar ECB Federal Reserve Bank of Boston N.A. Bank of England Lane Paul Donovan Bailey Show more
TradFi, Market Report
08:19 24.10.2024
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