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Oil prices rose slightly amid US President Trump's threats of secondary tariffs on Russian and Iranian crude, pushing Brent to $74.98 and WTI to $71.70. However, concerns over a potential trade war and increased supply from OPEC+ and the US are limiting gains. Analysts predict that slower global growth could dampen fuel demand, countering any supply reductions from Trump's threats.
Global energy demand surged by 2.2% in 2024, driven by rising electricity consumption, particularly in emerging economies. Renewables led the growth, accounting for 38% of the energy supply increase, while oil demand growth slowed to 0.8%, marking a historic drop in its share of total energy demand below 30%. Despite a rise in CO2 emissions, the adoption of clean technologies has significantly mitigated potential increases.
Goldman Sachs has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for December 2025 down by $5 to $71 per barrel, citing slower demand growth and increased OPEC+ supply. The bank now expects oil demand growth of 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025, influenced by slower U.S. GDP growth and higher tariffs. Meanwhile, oil prices rose over 1% amid geopolitical tensions and economic stimulus plans in China, with Brent futures reaching $71.91 and WTI at $68.42.
Brazil and South Africa are facing persistent inflation, while India and Indonesia may maintain lower rates. The OECD forecasts Saudi Arabia's GDP growth to rise to 3.8% in 2025, with stable inflation at 1.9%. Global growth is projected to slow due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty, with advanced economies particularly affected.
Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, projecting $71 a barrel by December 2025 and $68 in 2026, due to anticipated weaker US economic growth and increased OPEC+ supply. Analysts highlight the need for refiners to hedge against potential margin pressures as demand risks rise, while geopolitical factors, including energy sanctions and production increases from exempt OPEC producers like Libya and Iran, will also influence prices. Despite the downgrade, a modest recovery in oil prices is expected in the coming months, contingent on stronger GDP growth and ongoing sanctions on Russian energy.
Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price outlook, lowering its December 2025 forecast for Brent by $5 to $71 due to anticipated slower U.S. economic growth and increased OPEC+ supply. The bank warns of medium-term risks, including potential tariff escalations and the possibility of OPEC+ reversing supply increases if prices decline. Analysts believe the oil market will remain oversupplied this year, echoing sentiments from major commodity traders and the International Energy Agency.
The Arab region's GDP rose by 1.8% to $3.6 trillion in 2024, driven mainly by growth in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iraq, and Algeria, which account for over 72% of the total GDP. Looking ahead, a positive outlook for 2025 anticipates a growth rate of 2.9%, bolstered by increased oil production and major investments, particularly in Saudi Arabia under the Vision 2030 program.
The Arab region's GDP rose by 1.8% to $3.6 trillion in 2024, driven mainly by growth in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iraq, and Algeria, which account for over 72% of the total GDP. Looking ahead, a positive outlook for 2025 anticipates a growth rate of 2.9%, bolstered by increased oil production and major investments, particularly in Saudi Arabia under the Vision 2030 program.
Oil prices rose as the US imposed tighter sanctions on Iran and Russia, recovering from a previous decline. Brent crude surpassed $70 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate approached $67. The sanctions targeted Iran's oil minister and restricted payment options for Russian energy.
Oil prices remained stable on Friday but are poised for their largest weekly decline since October, with Brent down 4.9% and WTI down 4.8%. The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies and an increase in output from major producers are raising concerns about demand growth. Brent futures rose slightly to $69.59 a barrel, while WTI reached $66.44. The fluctuating trade policy, including the suspension of certain tariffs by President Trump, is impacting economic growth and oil demand.
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