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A distressed-debt rally is boosting high-yield funds, particularly in emerging markets like Argentina and Ukraine. Junk-rated dollar debt in these regions has returned 13% this year, with top performers including Argentina, Ecuador, Lebanon, and Ukraine, according to data from Bloomberg.
The recent IMF-World Bank meetings highlighted a consensus on a soft landing for the economy, with inflation nearing target levels, allowing for potential aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve. Emerging market countries like Kenya and El Salvador have shown significant recovery, successfully refinancing debts and implementing reforms, while concerns about fiscal sustainability in developed markets grow. Investor sentiment towards emerging market debt is improving, with expectations of no near-term defaults and a cautious outlook on distressed sovereigns like Ecuador and Lebanon.
The recent IMF-World Bank meetings highlighted a consensus on a soft landing for the economy, with inflation nearing targets and expectations of aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve. Emerging market countries like Kenya and El Salvador have shown significant recovery, successfully refinancing debts and implementing reforms, while concerns about fiscal sustainability in developed markets grow. Investor sentiment towards emerging market debt is improving, with a notable shift in debt risks from emerging to developed markets.
The recent IMF-World Bank Meetings highlighted a consensus on a soft landing for the economy, with inflation nearing targets and expectations of aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve, benefiting emerging markets. Countries like Kenya and El Salvador have successfully restructured debts, while Zambia and Ghana have exited restructuring, improving investor sentiment towards EM debt. Concerns about fiscal sustainability in developed markets contrast with the resilience seen in emerging economies, attributed to better monetary policy and fiscal management.
The EMRO region's recent discussions highlighted the severe impact of conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon on health infrastructure, with calls for solidarity and global cooperation to address health crises. WHO's Director General urged member states to finalize Pandemic Agreement negotiations and participate in a $7 billion investment initiative to support the organization's budget. Meanwhile, the South-East Asian regional meeting adopted resolutions on adolescent health and celebrated significant health achievements despite political unrest in Bangladesh.
Swiss Post plans to convert 170 branches into partner locations, investing over 100 million francs by 2028. Meanwhile, social welfare rates have dropped, but the number of recipients with mental health issues is rising, highlighting a need for better care services. In Zurich, stricter subletting regulations are being debated ahead of a referendum, while the new Hezbollah leader, Naim Qassem, has been appointed following Hassan Nasrallah's death.
Citigroup has relocated some of its staff from Lebanon to Turkey amid escalating violence in the region. Despite this move, over 20 employees remain in Lebanon, and the bank continues to service its clients there without interruption.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faced criticism from both his cabinet and opposition for the perceived weakness of recent attacks on Iran, with calls for more aggressive action. Despite attacking 20 military targets, Netanyahu emphasized coordination with the US, which has restricted strikes on Iran's nuclear and oil facilities. As tensions rise, Netanyahu's political maneuvering reflects the complexities of his relationship with the US and the ongoing security challenges in the region.
UBS maintains an 'attractive' rating for gold, forecasting prices to reach USD 2,850/oz by March 2025, driven by central bank easing, geopolitical tensions, and a weakening US dollar. The demand for gold is bolstered by significant central bank purchases and a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a hedge against political volatility. As interest rates decline, a diversified portfolio with a 5% gold allocation is recommended to mitigate risks.
Lebanon has been placed on the Financial Action Task Force's "gray list" due to its inadequate measures against illicit financial flows. This designation exacerbates the country's ongoing economic crisis, which has already seen three-quarters of its population plunged into poverty since its debt default in 2020.
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distressed debt rally boosts high-yield funds in emerging markets
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gold prices surge as central banks ease and geopolitical tensions rise
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