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US equities fell as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles and parts, effective April 3, raising supply chain concerns. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, while defensive sectors like consumer staples led a rotation. In Europe, the ECB's discussions on monetary policy and credit growth data are pivotal, as Norges Bank is expected to cut rates despite rising inflation. Geopolitical tensions persist with stalled ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, as EU leaders convene to address security concerns.
Polymarket is under scrutiny for a $7 million bet related to a mineral deal in Ukraine. The situation raises questions about the legality and ethical implications of such high-stakes wagers in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Raiffeisen Bank International reportedly facilitated cash deliveries totaling over nine billion euros, with some arriving as Russian troops advanced. This financial support has drawn criticism for potentially aiding the Kremlin's military efforts, as the bank continues operations in Russia despite the ongoing conflict.
Raiffeisen International transferred billions to Russia just before the onset of the war in Ukraine. Significant cash shipments reportedly arrived in Moscow on the very day of the invasion, raising concerns about the timing and implications of these financial movements.
Leonardo shares fell nearly 3% after UBS downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while raising the target price from 31 to 50 euros. The downgrade reflects limited upside potential following a remarkable 90% increase in the stock over the past three months, and a staggering 587% rise since the onset of the Ukraine war.
President Trump announced a full pardon for Devon Archer, a former business partner of Hunter Biden, during the NCAA wrestling championships in Philadelphia. Archer, who faced legal troubles linked to a deal with Hunter, expressed gratitude for the pardon, highlighting the Biden family's disregard for truth and justice. This move comes as Archer's testimony has been pivotal in exposing alleged corruption involving the Biden family.
Swiss banks are experiencing record gold trading as geopolitical uncertainties drive demand. With gold prices soaring, many customers are selling their gold holdings, while banks report significant increases in transactions. However, investors should be cautious, as gold does not yield interest and is subject to price risks.
UBS has revised its outlook for the Polish zloty, anticipating gains due to increased German defense and infrastructure spending, alongside potential benefits from a ceasefire in Ukraine. The firm has adjusted its USD/PLN exchange rate forecasts, projecting a stronger zloty against the dollar, with new end-of-quarter rates reflecting a more favorable medium-term outlook for the European economy. However, risks such as high tariffs and geopolitical tensions could impact this trajectory.
UBS has revised its forecast for the Polish zloty, citing Germany's increased defense and infrastructure spending and the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine as positive factors for European growth. The updated USD/PLN exchange rate predictions for Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 are now 3.96, 3.89, 3.80, and 3.71, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the zloty. However, risks such as high tariffs and renewed US economic strength could impact this trend.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for Fraport with a target price of 58 euros, as analyst Cristian Nedelcu revised estimates based on recent business figures. Despite Fraport's low representation in investor portfolios and a high "short ratio," which could amplify the impact of positive news, concerns remain regarding cash flow outlook. The analyst is cautious, remaining below consensus expectations.
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