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Asian shares mostly declined as Tokyo remained closed for New Year’s holidays, with investors cautious amid political uncertainties in South Korea and potential policy changes under President Trump. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 0.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.3%. U.S. markets closed lower on the last trading day of the year, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, despite a strong overall performance in 2024 driven by Big Tech and a growing economy.
The Coinbase premium index, a key indicator of Bitcoin retail demand in the US, has dropped to a 12-month low of -0.23, reflecting increased seller pressure as Bitcoin's price fell to $91,479. Analysts warn that this trend could hinder short-term price recovery unless macroeconomic conditions improve or retail interest surges. Long-term holders are seeing significant profits, which may lead to potential sell-offs as the new year approaches.
As digital migration accelerates, the rise of Web3 presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly regarding the power imbalance between creators and consumers. While memecoins can empower communities through decentralized governance, they are often exploited by bad actors. To safeguard the future of crypto, it is essential to develop community-driven infrastructures that prioritize collective decision-making and protect against manipulation.
UBS has further reduced its iPhone unit and revenue estimates due to a decline in sell-through, projecting December sales at 74 million units and $67.2 billion in revenue, down from previous estimates. This reflects an anticipated 4% year-over-year revenue decline, contrasting with consensus expectations of growth. The firm also adjusted its overall revenue estimate for the December quarter to $120.8 billion, below consensus, while slightly increasing its forecast for Apple Services revenue.
Power has been restored to nearly all of Puerto Rico following a widespread blackout that occurred on New Year's Eve, affecting 1.47 million customers. Luma Energy reported that 98% of service was back by Wednesday afternoon, but warned of potential temporary outages as the system stabilizes. Governor-elect Jenniffer González Colón urged residents to conserve energy to help manage the load as power plants are not yet operating at full capacity.
Silver prices are currently struggling to breach the $29 mark, with increased focus on monetary policy developments expected in January. Interest rate cuts by the Fed and ECB in 2025 remain uncertain, and upcoming economic data from China and the US could influence market trends. The psychologically significant $30 threshold is crucial for confirming a long-term upward trend, while a potential downturn may see prices range between $28 and $26.
UBS has maintained a sell rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) with a target price of $226, amid rising AI optimism and increasing competition in the EV market. Despite a strong overall market performance in 2024, AI stocks experienced a pullback due to profit-taking and high valuations, but analysts expect a $2 trillion surge in AI capital expenditure by 2025, bolstering tech stocks. Concerns remain over Federal Reserve decisions and U.S.-China tariffs, yet the tech sector is anticipated to thrive under a less regulatory environment.
Ukraine has halted Russian gas transit to Europe following the expiration of a pre-war agreement, citing national security concerns. This decision is expected to significantly impact Russia's gas market, as Europe aims to eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027. Moldova faces a humanitarian crisis as gas supplies to the breakaway region of Transnistria have been cut off, prompting emergency measures amid fears of a harsh winter.
Bitcoin's price surged above $95,000 just before year-end, with historic milestones anticipated in 2024, including the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US and the completion of the "halving" in April. The upcoming US presidential election, with Trump as a crypto-friendly candidate, is expected to influence market dynamics significantly. Bitcoin reached the $100,000 mark for the first time in December 2024, marking a pivotal moment for investors amid potential profit-taking and regulatory changes.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak predicts Tesla will report Q4 deliveries of 510,000, slightly below the consensus of 512,000, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase. The focus has shifted from delivery numbers to advancements in AI and autonomous driving, with UBS maintaining a 'Sell' rating and a price target of $226 amid concerns over high growth expectations and competition in the EV market. Tesla's stock remains volatile, influenced more by technological progress than traditional metrics.
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asian shares decline as investors weigh political uncertainties and market trends
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