UBS maintains that the Federal Reserve is still on track for rate cuts despite recent higher-than-expected inflation data, which has led to a reevaluation of aggressive easing bets. While core CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, analysts emphasize that overall inflation trends are downward, with headline CPI at its lowest since 2021. Upcoming PCE data will be crucial in confirming or challenging the recent CPI surprise.
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