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Societe Generale is closely monitoring the volatile dollar, which recently fluctuated between a near dip below 100 and a rebound above 110 on the Dollar Index. This instability reflects various economic factors, including Germany's fiscal adjustments and uncertainties in the US political landscape, with a modest GDP growth forecast of 1.7%. While the bank remains optimistic about global fiscal policies, particularly Germany's increased defense spending, it expresses caution regarding the US economic environment and its potential impacts on currency markets.
UBS analyst Esther Rajavelu has maintained a Neutral rating on Ionis Pharmaceuticals with a price target of $45, as the stock trades near its 52-week low at $31.40. The company is focused on launching Tryngolza for familial chylomicronemia syndrome and has partnered with Sobi for marketing outside the US. Despite generating $705 million in sales, Ionis is unlikely to reach profitability this year, with ongoing studies expected to yield phase 3 data for severe hypertriglyceridemia in 2025.
Trump's new auto tariffs are expected to impact the global automotive industry significantly, but Tesla may be less affected due to its domestic production and supply chain. While Tesla's stock has seen a decline of over 40% since December, analysts predict it will report around 398,000 vehicle deliveries for Q1. However, challenges persist in Europe and Canada, where political sentiment and reduced incentives threaten Tesla's competitive position.
UBS analyst Curt Woodworth has lowered Alcoa's price target from $53 to $47 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing a significant drop in alumina prices. Despite challenges, he remains optimistic about the aluminum industry's outlook, noting Alcoa's attractive valuation and potential for earnings growth. Additionally, Alcoa's subsidiary has announced a $1 billion senior notes offering to support debt and dividends, while CEO William Oplinger warned of job losses due to new tariffs affecting the aluminum sector.
UBS has reiterated a Neutral rating on Tourmaline Oil Corp, maintaining a target price of Cdn$80.00. The company, valued at $18.2 billion, shows strong financial health and operational productivity, particularly in the Deep Basin and Montney region, but may face challenges from lower natural gas prices. Investors are keenly awaiting the first quarter results on April 30, which are expected to reveal insights into free cash flow and a potential dividend announcement exceeding $0.85 per share.
UBS analysts warn that the U.S. auto sector faces significant challenges due to new 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts, impacting automakers and suppliers like Gentex Corporation, which is trading near 52-week lows despite strong financial health. Tesla and Rivian may be better positioned as their production is U.S.-based, while General Motors might consider relocating production to avoid tariffs, though this would require substantial investment. Gentex reported a record annual revenue of $2.31 billion for 2024, despite missing quarterly earnings expectations, and anticipates revenue guidance of $2.4 to $2.45 billion for 2025.
Deutsche Bank has revised its price target for Dollar Tree, Inc. to $82 from $88 while maintaining a Buy rating. As of March 2, 2024, Dollar Tree operates 16,774 discount stores across the U.S. and Canada, offering a wide range of consumable and seasonal products.
Barclays has lowered its 2025 S&P 500 target to 5,900, a reduction of over 10% from its previous estimate of 6,600, due to concerns over U.S. tariff actions impacting economic growth. The bank anticipates S&P 500 earnings per share will drop to $262 from $271, citing potential earnings reductions from tariffs on imports, particularly from China, steel, and aluminum. Other financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets, have also revised their S&P 500 targets downward.
Elon Musk has warned that President Trump's newly announced 25% tariffs on imported vehicles will significantly impact Tesla due to its reliance on foreign-made parts. While Tesla assembles cars in the U.S., many components are sourced internationally, leading to increased costs. The tariffs, effective April 3, aim to protect American jobs but have raised concerns among key trading partners and could destabilize the global auto market.
President Trump has announced a permanent 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and auto parts, effective April 3, sparking immediate backlash from affected countries, particularly Canada, which threatens countermeasures. The market reacted negatively, with significant declines in shares of major automakers, including General Motors and Ford, while Tesla saw a slight increase.
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societe generale navigates dollar volatility amid global economic shifts
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