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US inflation data is in focus this week following a surprisingly strong jobs report, with expectations for headline inflation to dip to 2.3% while core inflation remains steady at 3.2%. The robust labor market, highlighted by a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, may influence the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, potentially shifting from larger cuts to smaller ones. As bank earnings season begins, major institutions like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will report Q3 results, providing insights into profitability amid changing rates.
IG
01:34 09.10.2024
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set for release on October 10, 2024, is expected to show further disinflation, with headline CPI projected to drop to 2.3% and core CPI to 3.1%. Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may implement 25 basis point rate cuts in upcoming meetings, contingent on the inflation data aligning with consensus. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains in a consolidation phase, with key support at 5,674, as geopolitical uncertainties and weak seasonality weigh on market sentiment.
IG
23:52 08.10.2024
The Dow Jones index has retreated below 42,000 as concerns over oil prices, rising yields, and a lack of new stimulus from China weigh on market sentiment. After holding near highs for two weeks, further declines could target the previous high of 41,382 and the 50-day simple moving average at 41,042. A close above 42,500 would indicate a potential resurgence of buyer control in the short term.
23:50 08.10.2024
Big U.S. banks are expected to report lower third-quarter earnings due to rising deposit costs, with net interest income declining for most, except Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Consumer loan growth remains stagnant, and concerns over rising charge-offs persist. However, potential Fed interest rate cuts could improve profitability and investment banking revenue in the future.
20:32 08.10.2024
Since 1900, equities have consistently outperformed bonds, bills, and inflation across 21 markets, with the US market dominating global equity value at 60.5%. Long-run asset returns are primarily generated during easing cycles, with significant premiums observed in investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds. The re-emergence of inflation necessitates a historical perspective to navigate the current investment landscape effectively.
19:04 08.10.2024
A new study reveals that importing US LNG for power generation is more harmful to the climate than using local coal, producing about a third more emissions. The research highlights that emissions from the entire LNG supply chain, including extraction and transportation, significantly outweigh the benefits of switching from coal. Amidst political debates in the US over LNG exports, President Biden announced a temporary pause on approvals, citing concerns over methane's environmental impact.
America’s largest banks are set to report their lowest lending income in two years, with a projected combined net interest income of just under $62 billion, down nearly 5% from the previous year. Analysts anticipate a 15% decline in third-quarter net profits year-over-year, signaling a shift in profit margins as banks gradually increase rates for savers. In related news, CPI Card Group is piloting an environmentally friendly contactless card using new chip technology that enhances design options and reduces environmental impact, aligning with growing consumer demand for sustainable financial solutions.
18:58 08.10.2024
Canyon Partners has launched the Canyon Evergreen Private Credit Fund, targeting performing, income-oriented strategies across corporate, real estate, and asset-backed credit. This new evergreen strategy aims to provide collateral diversification and adapt to investment opportunities while maintaining investor exposure. The firm, which manages over $24 billion, has recently raised significant capital for various funds, including two collateralized loan obligations totaling more than $1 billion.
China plans to significantly increase central government debt issuance to stimulate its economy, while investors await more details on stimulus measures. Despite mixed inflation data, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, supporting equities into next year. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and fundamental supply-demand dynamics are likely to bolster oil and gold prices, making them valuable portfolio hedges.
18:11 08.10.2024
Investors are advised to capitalize on market volatility by building positions in AI-linked semiconductors, US megacaps, and select Chinese internet leaders, while employing capital preservation strategies. With the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates, the US dollar is expected to weaken, prompting a reduction in USD exposure and a potential rise in gold prices. The European Central Bank is anticipated to continue its rate cuts, and US retail sales data will be closely monitored for insights into economic strength.
18:11 08.10.2024
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