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Copper prices are showing signs of recovery, bolstered by hopes of a resolution to the US-China tariff dispute, which could alleviate economic strain. However, the global copper market remains well supplied, with a surplus of 150,000 tons reported in early 2023, despite ongoing concerns about potential shortages. Demand and metal processing have remained stable, but future developments, particularly related to tariffs, could impact the market significantly.
OPEC has introduced a compensation plan to address previous overproduction, involving cuts of 4.57 million barrels per day from eight countries until mid-2026. Iraq and Kazakhstan will contribute significantly, while the overall increase in supply from May is expected to be limited to just 30 thousand barrels per day due to compensatory cuts. Without further production increases, OPEC+ output may even decline slightly in June.
Brent oil prices surged past $68 per barrel, driven by easing tariff tensions and new US sanctions on Iran, including a shipping network linked to Iranian oil transport. Additionally, a significant drop in US crude oil inventories reported by the API further fueled the price increase. However, analysts caution that substantial upward potential may be limited due to concerns over looming oversupply.
Swiss gold exports in the first quarter showed a stark contrast, with shipments to the US soaring to nearly 450 tons, accounting for 77% of total exports. In contrast, exports to China and Hong Kong plummeted by 95% to 13.4 tons, while India saw an 87% decline to 7.4 tons, reflecting weakened demand in Asia amid rising gold prices.
Silver demand is projected to decline slightly to 1.15 billion ounces this year, driven by stagnation in industrial applications and reduced interest in jewelry and silverware. Despite a modest increase in supply, the supply deficit is expected to narrow to 118 million ounces, marking the smallest deficit in four years.
Silver prices continue to lag behind the soaring gold market, with silver currently 4% below its five-month high and only a 13% increase this year compared to gold's 30% rise. The gold/silver ratio has surged above 100, indicating silver's relative cheapness. Despite this, silver's performance is better than that of crude oil, copper, US equities, and bonds.
Barclays has lowered its price target for Ovintiv (OVV) to $53 from $59 while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic conditions and oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $60 and $65 per barrel, respectively. Analysts project an average target price of $55.22 for Ovintiv, indicating a potential upside of 64.44% from its current price of $33.58, with a consensus recommendation of "Outperform." GuruFocus estimates the stock's fair value at $37.01, suggesting a 10.21% upside.
Barclays analyst Betty Jiang has lowered the price target for Devon Energy (DVN) to $38 from $44, citing ongoing uncertainties in the oil market and revised forecasts of $60 for 2025 and $65 for 2026. Despite these challenges, Devon Energy maintains an Equal Weight rating, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile. Analysts project an average target price of $45.16 for DVN, indicating a potential upside of 44.73% from its current price of $31.20.
JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank demand amid concerns over a potential U.S. recession and escalating trade tensions with China. The bank anticipates gold will rise to approximately $3,675 by the end of 2025, following a year of significant gains.While central banks added over 1,000 metric tons of gold to their reserves in 2024, a decline in this demand poses a risk to the gold rally. Additionally, silver is expected to face short-term pressure but may rebound to around $39 per ounce by late 2025.
JP Morgan forecasts gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026, driven by rising recession risks and strong demand from investors and central banks, averaging 710 tonnes quarterly. Spot gold recently reached $3,500, while Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 forecast to $3,700, suggesting potential for $4,500 in extreme scenarios. However, a significant risk remains if central bank demand unexpectedly declines, which could lead to bearish market conditions.
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copper prices rebound amid trade hopes but supply remains stable
13:27 23.04.2025
OPEC plans compensatory cuts limiting production expansion through mid 2026
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13:25 23.04.2025
Brent oil prices surge amid sanctions and inventory decline
13:25 23.04.2025
Swiss gold exports surge to US while Asia sees significant decline
13:23 23.04.2025
silver demand declines as industrial use stagnates and supply deficit narrows
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silver price lags behind gold as market dynamics shift
12:57 23.04.2025
barclays lowers ovintiv price target while maintaining overweight rating
12:48 23.04.2025
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JPMorgan predicts gold prices could hit 4000 dollars by 2026
10:26 23.04.2025
jp morgan forecasts gold prices to exceed 4000 per ounce by 2026
21:27 22.04.2025
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